The European Commission expects economic growth of 3.9% for this year and 2.9% for 2023, according to the summer forecast. In terms of inflation, the estimate for this year is 11.1% and 7.2% for 2023.
Private consumption and investment will be the main growth drivers for this year and next, while net exports will act as a brake on GDP and lead to a widening trade deficit.
Indicators of economic activity and sentiment indicate a less optimistic second quarter.
On the other hand, high inflation will affect the purchasing power of households. On the other hand, the optimistic outlook for the labor market and the support measures announced by the government in April, especially for vulnerable households, should keep consumption up, albeit more moderately.
According to the (intermediate) economic forecasts for the summer of 2022, the EU economy will grow by 2.7% in 2022 and by 1.5% in 2023. In the euro area, growth of 2.6% is expected in 2022, at a faster pace. moderate by 1.4% in 2023. Average annual inflation is projected to reach all-time highs in 2022, at 7.6% in the euro area and 8.3% in the EU, before falling to 2023 in 2023. , 0% and 4.6%, respectively.