Inflation up over 15%, exceeds the central bank forecast. What products/services saw the highest price hikes?

Inflation reached 15.1% in June, the National Institute of Statistics announced, a figure above the National Bank of Romania, NBR’s spring forecast. The National Bank then estimated a maximum of 14.3% for this period.

Thus, the annual inflation rate in June 2022 compared to June 2021 is 15.1%. Consumer prices in June 2022 compared to May 2022 increased by 0.8%. The inflation rate at the beginning of the year (June 2022 compared to December 2021) is 10.0%.

The average rate of consumer prices in the last 12 months (July 2021 – June 2022) compared to the previous 12 months (July 2020 – June 2021) is 9.3%. The harmonized index of consumer prices – the indicator for determining inflation in EU Member States – in June 2022 compared to May 2022 is 100.78%.

The annual inflation rate in June 2022 compared to June 2021 calculated on the basis of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP) is 13.0%. The average rate of consumer prices in the last 12 months (July 2021 – June 2022) compared to the previous 12 months (July 2020 – June 2021) determined on the basis of the HICP is 7.9%.

In February, the NBR warned that price growth would accelerate. The National Bank of Romania (BNR) announced that it expects inflation to exceed 14.3 %% between April and June, ie after the expiration of measures to cap and offset gas and electricity bills. The increases will continue in the first months of summer, a period in which inflation will remain above 10%, the NBR estimated then.

In May, the National Bank of Romania (BNR) increased its inflation forecast to 12.5% ​​by the end of this year and estimated inflation at 6.7% by the end of next year. The central bank expected the anticipated acceleration of the annual CPI inflation rate until June, in the face of pressures from production costs, exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Central Bank mentioned that this is expected to be followed by a gradual deceleration, interrupted only temporarily in the second quarter of 2023, when the measures to cap electricity and natural gas prices come into force.

The highest price hikes

Consumer prices were up 0.8% in June 2022 from May 2022, INS also reports.

Gas prices have risen the most in the last year, given that tariffs were 89.5% higher in June this year compared to June 2021, according to data released Tuesday by the National Institute of Statistics.

In the top of non-food goods that recorded the largest price increases were also fuels, with a price advance of 41.32% in June 2022 compared to June 202, and electricity – plus 17.05%.

The foods that became more expensive in the reference range were edible oil, with price increases of 49.71%, potatoes – 42.18% and flour – 33.16%.

In the services sector, air transport was the most expensive – 29.13%, water, sanitation – 19.44% and postal services – 15.94%.

From month to month, in June the most important price increases were recorded for oil – 7.33%, air transport services – 6.24% and fuels – 3.22%. Last month there were food products that became cheaper, potatoes the most, by 10.32%, and fresh fruit, by 2.5%. Also, the INS data show that the tariffs for electricity were lower by 1.19% and for postal and telecommunications services by 0.01%.