Prognosis Commission revises upwards the inflation forecast to 3.2%

The National Commission for Strategy and Prognosis (CNSP) has revised upwards the inflation forecast for this year to 3.2% and the estimates on the average exchange rate have also been revised upwards to RON 4.74 per EUR, according to the Spring Prognosis 2019-2022.

The Winter Prognosis pointed to 2.8% inflation and an average exchange rate of RON 4.67 per EUR.

The inflation forecast has also been changed for 2020, up to 2.8% and the average exchange rate to RON 4.71 per EUR, up against RON 4.62 per EUR.

The inflation forecast for 2021 and 2022 has been maintained at 2.3% and 2.2% respectively. The exchange rate could reach RON 4.69 per EUR in 2021 (up against RON 4.6 per EUR) and RON 4.67 per EUR in 2022 (up against RON 4.58 per EUR).

CNSP has maintained the economic growth forecast at 5.5%, however the nominal value of the GDP has been revised upwards to RON 1,031 billion, up against RON 1,022 billion in the Winter Prognosis. The growths for the following years have also remained unchanged: 4.7% in 2020 and 5% in 2021 and 2022.

CNSP maintains the forecast regarding the current account deficit to 3.3% this year, and to 2.9% in 2020.