Prognosis Commission’s forecast for 2019: GDP of RON 1,000bn, real growth of 5.5%, average RON/EUR exchange rate of 4.67

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The new economic forecast from the National Prognosis Commission (CNP) for 2019, released on Wednesday, points to an investment growth of 6.9%, down from 7.9% previously. A lower number of employees is considered, of 5.282 million, down from 5.335 million previously. The reasoning for this consideration is not available, whether it takes into account migration or other factors. The forecast is most likely the basis for building the draft state budget for 2019, hotnews.ro informs.

The anticipated average exchange rate is of RON 4.67 per EUR, against the previous level of RON 4.62 per EUR.

Inflation rate will fall to 2.5% in 2020, to 2.3% in 2021 and to 2.2% in 2022.

The estimates regarding the unemployment rate is 4.1% in 2019, 4% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2022.

The average monthly wage earning is estimated at RON 3,085, as compared to the autumn anticipation of RON 2,903. Final consumption is estimated to grow by 5.9%, up from 5.7%, considering mainly the public administration.

Trade deficit is estimated at EUR 16.9 billion, up from EUR 16.3 billion in the previous forecast.

The GDP is anticipated at RON 1,000 billion, with a real economic growth of 5.5%. If the draft budget for 2019 provides for a budget deficit of 2.55% of GDP, then the amount will reach RON 26 billion.

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